Contextual Information & Existing Initiatives:


The ongoing ‘battle’

The situation between Taiwan and China is complex and has historical roots. Taiwan and China have had a contentious relationship since the Chinese Civil War in the 1940s, which resulted in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) taking control of mainland China and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) fleeing to Taiwan. Both sides have since maintained separate governments, with Taiwan evolving into a democratic society while China remained under Communist rule.

China considers Taiwan a part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. This stance creates tension, especially when Taiwan takes actions perceived as moving toward formal independence. Additionally, Taiwan’s diplomatic recognition and participation in international organizations are limited due to pressure from China, which sees such actions as legitimizing Taiwan's separate status.

In recent years, there have been increased military activities by China in the Taiwan Strait, including naval and air maneuvers near Taiwan. These actions, along with diplomatic pressure and economic coercion, contribute to Taiwan's sense of being under threat. Taiwan, in response, has bolstered its own defenses and sought closer ties with like-minded countries to ensure its security and international standing.

The ‘China’ threat

For years, Taiwan has worked diligently to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait amidst China’s ongoing expansionist efforts. These efforts extend beyond Taiwan, as China employs gray-zone tactics in the East and South China Seas to bolster its power and assert territorial claims aggressively. Recent moves such as securing ports in the Indian Ocean and signing a security pact with the Solomon Islands raise concerns about escalating tensions and threaten global peace.
China's influence has effectively barred Taiwan from participating in global forums like the WHA, despite past periods of limited participation. Efforts were made  by the United States and New Zealand to support Taiwan's inclusion, but most countries aligned with China's stance to ignore Taiwan's requests due to Beijing's claim of representing all of China, including Taiwan.
But preserving stability in the Taiwan Strait is crucial for various reasons. The strait serves as a vital route for nearly half of the world’s commercial container traffic daily. Moreover, Taiwan plays a pivotal role in the semiconductor industry, producing more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors, including advanced ones critical for various technologies. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the largest player in semiconductor foundries, commands a significant share of the global market, supplying key components to major tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm. If the flow of chips from Taiwan was disrupted, it would have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.

International support to Taiwan: 

Why the "one country, two systems" may not work? ¹

  • The 2022 white paper on Taiwan released by China, lacks assurances of specific rights that Taiwan could enjoy after unification. These include rights to its own administrative, legislative, and judicial powers, control over military and economic affairs, and participation in national governance.

  • Unlike previous versions, the 2022 white paper doesn’t guarantee that military troops or administrative personnel from the mainland will not be sent to Taiwan. This omission raises concerns about the potential occupation of Taiwan by the PLA and the suppression of separatist voices.

  • The language in the white paper suggests Beijing intends to exert more control over Taiwan post-unification, akin to its actions in Hong Kong, which has faced social unrest and changes to its autonomy under the "one country, two systems" model.

  • The 2022 white paper contradicts previous promises of applying a looser form of "one country, two systems" in Taiwan compared to Hong Kong and Macao. Instead, it hints at implementing similar control measures as those seen in Hong Kong, raising concerns about eroding Taiwan's autonomy.

  • Without clear assurances and with the possibility of troop deployment, there are concerns that Taiwan could face an extended period of military occupation as Beijing seeks to integrate dissenting voices into a unified society.
    Source: https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2022-11/Chapter_4--Taiwan.pdf

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¹ This new white paper is to reiterate the fact that Taiwan is part of China, to demonstrate the resolve of the CPC and the Chinese people and their commitment to national reunification, and to emphasize the position and policies of the CPC and the Chinese government in the new era.