Global Conflicts Double Over the Past Five Years

The ACLED Conflict Index reports a dramatic escalation in global violence, with conflicts doubling over the last five years. In 2024 alone, over 233,000 fatalities were recorded from nearly 200,000 conflict events, making this one of the most violent years in recent history.

Key Findings:

  • Palestine: The most dangerous region, with 81% of the population exposed to conflict, over 35,000 fatalities recorded in the past year, and an average of 52 daily incidents.

  • Global Surge in Political Violence: A 25% increase compared to 2023, driven by intensified conflicts in Myanmar, Syria, Mexico, and Sudan.

  • Rising Bombing Campaigns: Over 90,000 bombing events were recorded in 2024, nearly double the rate of battles and triple the violence directly targeting civilians.

  • Electoral Violence: Countries holding elections in 2024 saw a 63% rise in political violence compared to a 21% rise in nations without elections. Yet, despite violence, democratic transitions occurred in countries like India and Senegal.

Notable Trends:

  1. Middle-Income Countries at Risk: Conflicts are increasingly concentrated in middle- and high-income nations, signaling that development and democracy do not shield against violence.

  2. Protests on the Rise: Over 143,000 protests were recorded globally, with a significant portion linked to pro-Palestinian movements.

  3. Localized Violence Control: Regions like the Sahel, Myanmar, and Mexico show governments struggling to maintain control, with power often held by militias and insurgents.

Outlook for 2025:

ACLED predicts a 15% rise in conflict events, with up to 20,000 fatalities per month in early 2025. Violence patterns are expected to evolve, driven by key geopolitical players and emerging regional disputes.

At the World Forum 2025, taking place on March 18 & 19 in Berlin, world leaders, renowned peace negotiators, and leading experts will convene to present and discuss comprehensive peace plans and innovative approaches to conflict resolution. This pivotal gathering aims to address pressing global crises and foster actionable solutions for sustainable peace.